Prophecies for 2020 US Election favors Joe Biden. As Donald Trump attempts to keep Joe Biden at distance in the quest for the White House, a Jewish-American researcher who has successfully forecast the last nine US presidential elections has made another prophecy.
Prof. Allan Lichtman of the American University estimated that Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would beat US President Donald Trump, saying that politics mattered more than campaigning.
Prophecies for 2020 US Election
Lichtman used his “13 keys” concept to forecast that Biden would prevail over Trump in his statement to Fox News. He developed the model with Russian scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, which is composed of 13 keys that are used as predictors to decide the outcome of the US presidential elections, and later published it in a book in 1996.
It is down to the success of the current president and his team, according to Lichtman, whether or not they will take the White House again. Prophecies for 2020 US Election Us Election.
As they are called, the “keys” are focused on a variety of issues such as controversy, House of Representatives dominance by a party, the state of the economy, civil turmoil, foreign / military advances and defeats, charisma, and so on.
Lichtman notes that the election will be won by whichever party keeps six or more keys in its favour, noting that statements made at protests are ignored as political rhetoric and propaganda by voters.
He famously said, “It’s governance and not lobbying that counts.”
In the 2016 US Presidential Race, Lichtman was one of the relatively few persons who expected that Hillary Clinton would lose to Donald Trump. Trump wrote the professor a thank you note on a copy of the Washington Post report about the forecast when he became president.
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This time around, though, it doesn’t seem like Donald Trump would be happy with Lichtman ‘s forecast. In 2016, Lichtman said Trump had seven keys in his favour, but the situation had changed this time around.
The keys against Trump
Lichtman explained to Fox News that “now that Trump is the leader, he has seven keys against him.” “My estimate is that Donald Trump would become the first sitting president to lose a reelection campaign since George H. W. Bush in 1992, and Joe Biden will become the new U.S. president.”
After the coronavirus pandemic caused the deaths of more than 200,00 people, Lichtman said that the ‘keys’ had turned against the US president this year. After George Floyd ‘s death, widespread civil instability and racial problems have meant the keys were slipping out of Trump’s control.
“You get credit for the sunshine and the blame for the rain when you’re president,” Lichtman said, quoting US President Herbert Hoover. “So it’s raining pretty hard right now in America.”
“Lichtman later reaffirmed his forecast on social media, posting on Twitter that” My final prediction is unaffected depending on the Keys to the White House. I also forecast that [Donald Trump] will become the first sitting president to lose re-election since 1992 and that Joe Biden will be the next President of the united states.
The international / military accomplishment is one of the keys that have turned against Donald Trump, Lichtman says. This is amid the recent achievement of the US president in normalising relations between Israel, Bahrain, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates. He had a reason for this, too.
Unless it is of great importance and universally acclaimed in the United States, I almost never turn a key based on a treaty, “he explained, adding that he did not turn it either for the 1994 peace treaty with Jordan, despite Jordan being” a much more prominent country than anyone participating in the current treaty. The current treaty has hardly made a ripple in the United States.
US Election 2020: Trump or Biden? Americans to decide today
The forecast of Lichtman came a few hours before America went to the ballot boxes as Donald Trump, chasing his Democratic opponent Joe Biden, who is still leading in the polls, on a spree through main swing states.
For months, the 77-year-old former vice president has maintained a steady lead in the national polls over 74-year-old US President Trump, often touching double digits.
But the US presidential race, by popular vote, is not determined.
They are won by the 538-member Electoral College, where each state has a number of votes equal to the House and Senate representation.
And the electoral votes in swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania were able to decide the winner of the White House fight on Tuesday.